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Intelligence · Constellation Engine ARCH-02

Live Constellations

Structural co-movement, cascading, and opposing trajectory patterns surfaced by the Constellation Engine. Pairwise correlations are recomputed continuously across active trajectories — an edge enters the engine at r ≥ 0.60.

3
Live constellations
8
Member trajectories
0.60
Engine threshold
15m
Recompute cadence
Type
Legend Chips on each member: incumbent rating → implied stage · evidence bibliography (EWOX-EVI-01) · divergence trend sparkline
⬡ ALIGNED — CO-MOVEMENT 0.87

Monetary Architecture Shift

CFA Architecture Transition 2.9
Moody's Ba3 implies 2.1 · trailing14 sources · 6 high-proximity
NAIRA Structural Stage 3.4
Moody's B3 implies 2.4 · trailing18 sources · 8 high-proximity
EM Currency Vulnerability 3.1
S&P B implies 2.6 · trailing11 sources · 4 high-proximity
SM
Conviction note · S. Masimango · Principal Chamber

“The 0.87 spine has held four cycles. Every incumbent rating in this constellation trails the structure — the whole pattern is one Stage Lag trade.”

3 members · same direction, same driver · compound energy
⬡ CASCADING — WATERFALL 0.74

Gulf–DRC Resource Chain

Gulf Capital Retreat 3.8
—9 sources · 3 high-proximity
↓ transmission lag ~1 cycle
DRC Governance Stress 3.1
Moody's Caa1 implies 3.6 · leading16 sources · 7 high-proximity
↓ transmission lag ~2 cycles
Cobalt Processing Concentration 2.8
—EWOX-EVI-01 building bibliography
◎ Staking window — Cobalt (lagging member) · AI prior 2.4 vs structure 2.8 · closes with next cycle
Calibrators staked on members: SMAK MO+9 more
3 members · ordered causal chain · measurable transmission lag
⬡ OPPOSED — COUNTER-MOVEMENT −0.71

Grid Collision

European Gas Phase-Out 2.9
Mandate Phased / Transition12 sources · 5 high-proximity
AI Data Centre Power Demand 3.8
—21 sources · 11 high-proximity
⇄
Tension. These trajectories consume the same grid capacity in opposite directions. When one advances a stage, the other's window compresses — the counter-movement has held at −0.71 for five cycles.
2 members · tension pattern · convergence forces resolution

✉ New-constellation digest

When ARCH-02 surfaces a new pattern above threshold — or an existing constellation changes type — the members, correlation, and open staking windows land in your morning digest.