← EWOX.AI / RISK MARKETS
What institutions chose to publish

The question that went public.

Capital-staked, public payout — divergence, in the open. Every Risk Market began as a Private Market an institution set to public. Stake EcoDrop on the divergence between official position and open consensus.

47
Live markets
24
Templates
3%
Market rake
0
Outcome dependency
⚔ Rivalry alert
SHK-0441 (tracked rival) just staked YES on “CFA Franc devaluation before end 2026?” — a market you are also watching. Head-to-head on shared markets: you 11 correct, SHK-0441 12 correct, of 19 shared.
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47 live markets · resolves on evidence, never editorial judgment
◎ RISK MARKET · SOVEREIGN & GEOPOLITICS Stage · Structuring156K EcoDrop staked

NAIRA devalue >20% in 12 months?

◎ Beat-the-Prior window — crowd 71% vs AI prior 68%
AK
Conviction note · Amara Kofi · 87% Sovereign

“CBN reserve depletion crossed the 60-day threshold — parallel-rate data makes this high conviction. The prior undersells it.”

AI prior68%
Yes — crowd71%+3.2 7d
No — crowd29%
Divergence+0.8σ
NO 29%gold blade = AI priorYES 71%

Consensus 64% · Reuters poll, Oct 2026 · Resolves 15 Nov 2026 · criteria locked · Originated by Lagos Sovereign Desk · 14 Mar 2026

◎ RISK MARKET · TECHNOLOGY & AI Stage · Hardening204K EcoDrop staked

CHIPS Act full enforcement by Q4 2026?

AI prior79%
Yes — crowd82%+2.1 7d
No — crowd18%
Divergence+0.9σ
NO 18%gold blade = AI priorYES 82%

Consensus 76% · CSIS panel, Aug 2026 · Resolves 31 Dec 2026 · criteria locked · Originated as Private Market · 03 May 2026 · anonymous

◎ RISK MARKET · SOVEREIGN & GEOPOLITICS Stage · Hardening134K EcoDrop staked

CFA Franc devaluation before end 2026?

AI prior58%
Yes — crowd62%+1.4 7d
No — crowd38%
Divergence+0.4σ
NO 38%gold blade = AI priorYES 62%

Consensus Awaiting source · Resolves 31 Dec 2026 · criteria locked · Originated as Private Market · 21 Jan 2026 · anonymous

◎ RISK MARKET · COMMODITIES & RESOURCES Stage · Developing89K EcoDrop staked

DRC cobalt export restriction within 6 months?

SM
Conviction note · S. Masimango · 88% Commodities

“Processing concentration event is live — the six-month window is tighter than the crowd prices.”

AI prior35%
Yes — crowd38%+0.6 7d
No — crowd62%
Divergence+0.3σ
NO 62%gold blade = AI priorYES 38%

Consensus 42% · Bloomberg survey, Sep 2026 · Resolves 30 Jun 2026 · criteria locked · Originated as Private Market · 02 Feb 2026 · anonymous

◎ RISK MARKET · ENERGY & CLIMATE Stage · Structuring78K EcoDrop staked

EU gas phase-out delay > 3 years?

AI prior44%
Yes — crowd41%−0.5 7d
No — crowd59%
Divergence−0.5σ
NO 59%gold blade = AI priorYES 41%

Consensus 48% · IEA outlook, Q3 2026 · Resolves 31 Dec 2029 · criteria locked · Originated as Private Market · 11 Apr 2026 · anonymous

◎ RISK MARKET · FINANCIAL & RISK Stage · Developing92K EcoDrop staked

Nigeria IMF program — formal agreement before end 2026?

AI prior53%
Yes — crowd57%+1.0 7d
No — crowd43%
Divergence+0.4σ
NO 43%gold blade = AI priorYES 57%

Consensus 51% · Fitch note, Oct 2026 · Resolves 31 Dec 2026 · criteria locked · Originated as Private Market · 18 Feb 2026 · anonymous

Calibration leaderboard — accuracy, not luck

Institutional forecasters ranked by confirmed calibration accuracy. Accuracy compounds over time; a lucky position does not move this table. Track any institution as a rival to receive an alert whenever they stake a market you watch.

1
SHK-0441 — Shanaka Capital GmbH
34 markets · 840K volume
92.4
2
NGU-0082 — NGU'EWODO Holdings
28 markets · 620K volume
89.1
3
ANO-0217 — Anonymous · Institutional
19 markets · 490K volume
87.6
4
BEL-0394 — Belmont Partners
22 markets · 380K volume
84.3
5
KIG-0115 — Kigali Capital
15 markets · 220K volume
81.9

Six governed functions

AI sets the prior. Experts anchor trajectories. Resolution requires verifiable primary-source evidence.

AI Prior Agent
Structurally calibrated starting probability from the linked trajectory's stage estimate. Not a forecast — a structural baseline.
Resolution Gate
Verifiable primary-source criteria for every market, locked before any stake. Resolves against governed Markers.
Probability History
7/30/90-day charts of crowd probability vs structural stage. The divergence between crowd and structure is the signal.
24 Templates
Across all six taxonomy sectors, with AI-calibrated priors and pre-written resolution criteria. Inner Room reviewed.
Leaderboard
Institutional forecasters ranked by calibration accuracy. Accuracy compounds; luck does not.
EcoDrop Staking
Capital-weighted participation. Outcome dependency permanently zero. EWOX earns 3% rake from the pool.

Probabilities are informational only. They do not constitute investment, legal, or policy advice. No regulatory status is implied. EcoDrop is not redeemable for cash.